Monday, 20 February 2012

WORLD FOREX: Greek Deal Lifts Euro, Impact Seen Short-Lived


-- Euro rises broadly after euro-zone members say they have agreed on second bailout package for Greece
-- Euro won't likely able to sustain gains as deal itself not surprise, dealers say
-- Dollar in uptrend against yen, need fresh factor to rise above key Y80.00 level
 
   By Takashi Mochizuki 
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 
 
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The euro rose against the dollar and yen on Tuesday in Asia as the unusual timing of news of the fresh Greek bailout deal caught investors slightly off guard, although the currency's gains are likely to be short-lived as the package's details didn't contain major buying cues.
It was just before 0300 GMT when euro-zone officials said they agreed on a second rescue package totalling EUR130 billion and Athen's private-sector creditors accepted voluntary writing down more than 53% of the face value on the bonds they hold. The officials also said the rate on the original bailout loan to Greece will be decreased.
"Investors reacted to the Greek headlines just because the deal is sealed," said Yuji Saito, director of the foreign exchange division at Credit Agricole Bank in Tokyo.
The euro rose to as high as $1.3293 from $1.3189 before the news and to a three-month high of Y105.97 from Y105.15.
Dealers in Tokyo said it was sort of a knee-jerk reaction because there was speculation that euro-zone members wouldn't be able to reach a deal today.
As of 0350GMT, the euro was at $1.3263 from $1.3240 in New York Monday and Y105.64 from Y105.44.
Looking ahead, dealers are very skeptical about the euro's upward momentum even in the near-term because details of the package were almost in line what the market had expected, which turned out to be a disappointment for market participants who had hoped for a positive surprise.
In the long-term, the euro's trend remains clearly downward, said Minori Uchida, a senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
"Just sealing the deal is long way off from saying the whole European debt crisis is nearing an end," he said. "The problem is not just about Greece as we also have other troubled European nations. And first of all, we need to further monitor whether the Greece package will be implemented smoothly."
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, was at 79.006.
The Dollar, meanwhile, was at Y79.65 from Y79.55. Uchida said the greenback will likely keep rising, but "investors need one more fresh trading cue" to push it above the key level of Y80.00."
 
Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates At 22:50 EST / 0350 GMT 
 
                         Latest     Previous   %Chg   Daily   Daily    %Chg 
                                    2150 GMT          High    Low      12/31 
Dollar Rates 
USD/JPY Japan            79.64-66       79.62-64  +0.03    79.81    79.56  +3.56 
EUR/USD Euro            1.3263-66      1.3241-44  +0.17   1.3292   1.3188  +2.35 
GBP/USD U.K.            1.5840-44      1.5847-55  -0.05   1.5860   1.5810  +1.93 
USD/CHF Switzerland     0.9101-02      0.9115-18  -0.16   0.9148   0.9084  -2.89 
USD/CAD Canada          0.9943-48      0.9932-37  +0.11   0.9964   0.9932  -2.59 
AUD/USD Australia       1.0717-22      1.0753-57  -0.33   1.0756   1.0682  +5.01 
NZD/USD New Zealand     0.8376-82     0.8396-404  -0.25   0.8401   0.8341  +7.75 
 
Euro Rates 
 
EUR/JPY Japan           105.63-66      105.40-48  +0.20   105.95   105.08  +6.11 
 
Source: ICAP Plc. 

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